MORNING NOTES
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Friday, June 26, 2009
US Markets - Indices


US indices rose yesterday in a broad based rally driven by strong gains in the transportation and retailing sectors.

European markets are slightly up and US futures call for a stable start.

Market Hours

Bed Bath & Beyond (+9.48% to $31.08) reported 1Q EPS of $0.34 vs $0.3 a year ago ($0.25 expected) on sales up 2.8% YoY to $1.69bln ($1.68bln expected). 1Q Comparable store sales decreased by appx. 1.6% YoY. The Co said the 2Q and FY EPS consensus appeared reasonable under the current market conditions.

Lennar Corp (+17.52% to $9.19) announced a 2Q LPS of $0.76 (unchanged YoY) on sales down 21% to $891.9m. The Co had new orders of 3,564 homes down 19% from the same period a year ago but up 63% QoQ.

Nike (B) (-3.28% to $51.28) posted 4Q EPS ex-items up 5% to $0.99 ($0.97 expected) on sales down 7% YoY to $4.7bln (inline). The Co reported worldwide futures orders for Nike brand athletic footwear and apparel, scheduled for delivery from June 2009 through November 2009, totaling $7.8bln, 12% lower than orders reported for the same period last year. By region, futures orders for the U.S. were down 4 percent; EMEA (which includes Europe, the Middle East and Africa) declined 24%; Asia Pacific decreased 5%; and the Americas dropped 7%.

Paychex (-6.18% to $25.06) reported 4Q EPS down 16% YoY to $0.32 ($0.33 expected) on total revenue down 4% YoY to $495.9m ($507m expected). The Co commented, "Our results for the 4Q of fiscal 2009 fully reflect the weak economic conditions, which impacted earlier quarters to a lesser degree. Checks per client declined 5.2% for the 4Q, compared to 4.3% for the 3Q and 2.9% for the FY." Concerning its outlook, the Co sees FY10 net income down 12% to 10% and FY10 total revenue down 4% to 1%.

CIGNA (+5.36% to $24.98): chairman and CEO, H. Edward Hanway, will retire effective December 31, 2009. David M. Cordani, the current president and COO was named by the board to succeed him as CEO effective January 1, 2010.

CenturyTel (+2.06% to $32.16)'s purchase of Embarq Corp won Federal Communications Commission approval (Bloomberg).

Yahoo (+0.52% to $15.53) plans to overhaul its brand (WSJ).

Liberty Global (+2.68% to $15.72) would be interested in the Irish unit of sports broadcaster Setanta (Telegraph).

Deere & Co (+5.3% to $42.11) was upgraded to "neutral" from "sell" at Goldman Sachs.

Conagra Foods (-4.24% to $19.18) delivered 4Q EPS ex-items from continuing operations of $0.41 vs $0.42, up 128% YoY. Total sales rose 7.5%, driven by its Consumer Foods segment, to $3.298bln. The company expects fiscal 2010 diluted EPS ex-items from continuing operations to be $1.63-$1.66 ($1.63 consensus).

McCormick (-0.06% to $32.31) reported 2Q EPS ex-items of $0.38 vs $0.41 expected and $0.35 a year ago. The Company reaffirmed its EPS guidance for 2009 of $2.24 to $2.28 which includes $0.05 of restructuring charges.

American International Group (+2.82% to $1.46) announced an agreement with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) to 1) reduce the debt AIG owes the FRBNY by $25bln 2) position American International Assurance Company and American Life Insurance Company for initial public offerings, depending on market conditions.

Health Care: Watson Pharmaceuticals (+4.31% to $33.4) reached a new 52w high.

After Hours

Accenture reported 3Q EPS of $0.68 ($0.66 expected), compared with $0.74 a year ago on revenue down 16% YoY to $5.15bln ($5.29bln expected). Consulting net revenues were down 20% to $2.95bln while Outsourcing net revenues were up 9% YoY to $2.19bln. Operating cash flow was $1.015bln vs $1.08bln a year ago. Looking forward, the Co expects 4Q net revenues to be in the range of $5.0bln to $5.2bln ($5.2bln consensus). Accenture continues to target FY/2009 new bookings in the range of $23bln to $25bln and expects FY revenue growth to be flat to slightly positive and EPS to be in the range of $2.67 to $2.7 vs a range of $2.6 to $2.67 previously estimated ($2.63 consensus).

Boeing: Qantas Airways has cancelled orders for 15 787 Dreamliner and delayed the delivery of a further 15 due to market conditions.

Micron Technology unveiled 3Q sales of $1.1bln vs $1.5bln a year ago ($1.18bln expected) and a LPS of $0.36 vs a LPS of 0.3 a year ago (LPS of $0.41 expected).

Palm posted 4Q non-GAAP adjusted revenues of $113.2m vs $296.15m a year ago ($80m expected). Gross Margin was 26.8% vs 31.86% a year ago. LPS was $0.40 compared to a LPS of $0.22 a year ago (LPS of $0.65 expected).

Tibco Software reported 2Q non GAAP EPS up 22% YoY to $0.11 ($0.09 expected) on revenue up 1% YoY to $142.7m ($140m expected). "We are managing our business tightly during the downturn and focused on delivering strong returns, as shown by a 40% annual growth in non-GAAP EPS through the first half of the year," TIBCO's chairman and chief executive officer said.

CACI International raised its FY/09 EPS guidance from $2.95-$3.05 to $3.09-$3.16 and revenue from $2.65bln-$2.75bln to $2.6bln-$2.75bln.

Honeywell agreed to pay $400m for RMG Group, a German Co specialised in natural gas measuring and control products, services and integrated solutions.

Illinois Tool Works was upgraded to "outperform" from "market perform" at Wachovia.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan reduced its 2Q EPS forecast to appx. $0.7 from a range of $1.1 to $1.5 due to deferral of purchases by customers around the world and lower realized prices for phosphate fertilizers. The consensus EPS forecast for the 2Q is around $0.86.
 
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Indices Last % 1D % YTD
S&P 500 920 2.14 1.88
Nasdaq 100 1,476 1.99 21.80
Dow Jones 30 8,472 2.08 -3.46

Commodities Last % 1D % YTD
Crude Oil 70.7 0.61 36.69
Gold 945.2 0.63 7.15

Forex Last % 1D % YTD
EUR/USD 1.4082 0.67 0.79
GBP/USD 1.6478 0.66 12.91
USD/JPY 95.47 0.50 -5.06

Expect Today

KB Home is expected to report a wider 2Q LPS compared to a year ago (LPS of $0.33) on sales of appx. $340m ($639m), bef-mkt.

Economic Data Today

US 08:30: May Personal Income, exp.: 0.3%
US 08:30: May Personal Spending, exp.: 0.3%
US 08:30: May PCE Deflator (YoY), exp.: 0.1%
US 08:30: May PCE Core (MoM), exp.: 0.1%
US 10:00: Jun F U. of Michigan Confidence, exp.: 69

Dividend

Avalonbay Communities Inc: $0.8925
Boston Properties Inc: $0.5
Deere & Co: $0.28
Dow Chemical Co/The: $0.15
Edison International: $0.31
Fifth Third Bancorp: $0.01
Franklin Resources Inc: $0.21
Illinois Tool Works Inc: $0.31
Kraft Foods Inc: $0.29
Molex Inc: $0.1525
Nicor Inc: $0.465
Nucor Corp: $0.35
Pg&E Corp: $0.42
Steel Dynamics Inc: $0.075
Us Bancorp: $0.05
Windstream Corp: $0.25
Xerox Corp: $0.0425
Xto Energy Inc: $0.125

In The Press

Wall Street Journal (www.wsj.com)
UBS Plans Stock Sale
Bernanke Blasted by Lawmakers

New York Times (www.nytimes.com)
A.I.G. Gives the Fed Stakes in 2 Units to Trim Debt
2 G.M. Michigan Sites Said to Remain

Financial Times (www.ft.com)
Qantas cancels Dreamliner orders
Microsoft reveals discounts for Windows 7

Advance / Decline

94% of S&P500 constituents traded higher yesterday.
38% trade above their 20D MA vs 21% Wednesday (below the 20D moving average).
61% trade above their 200D MA vs 53% Wednesday (below the 20D moving average).

The VIX index eased 2.69pts to 26.36, a new 3mths low. The VXN index closed at a new 3mths low at 27.25.

Interest Rate

The 10yr yield fell 14.5bps to 3.54% (below its 20D MA). The 2yr-10yr spread rose 7.4bps to -241.3bps (above its 20D MA).

Sectors vs S&P 500

3mths relative high: none
3mths relative low: none


 

SP 500: targeting 845

960 remains our pivot point.

Our preference: As long as 960 is not broken up, we favour a down move with 845 and then 810 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: A break above 960 would open the way to 978 and then to 1000.

Comment: The daily technical indicators are bearish and do not show any reversal signs.

Trend: ST limited decline; MT range.

Today, below 930, a retracement is likely towards 900 & 889 even. Alternatively, above 930, aim at 950.


 
S&P 500 (Daily)





Nasdaq 100: Under pressure

Our pivot point stands at 1515.

Our preference: As long as 1515 is not broken up, we favour a down move with 1330 and then 1280 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: Only the upside breakout of 1515 will invalidate our bearish scenario. In this case, a recovery should shape towards 1550 at first, and then 1600.

Comment: The daily technical indicators are bearish and do not show any reversal signs.

Trend: ST limited decline; MT range.

Today, below 1490, a retracement is likely towards 1440 & 1428. Alternatively, above 1490, aim at 1510.


 
Nasdaq 100 (Daily)





Dow Jones: Under pressure

8900 remains our pivot point.

Our preference: As long as 8900 is not broken up, we favour a down move with 7960 and then 7675 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: A break above 8900 would open the way to 9300 and then to 9600.

Comment: The daily technical indicators are bearish and do not show any reversal signs.

Trend: ST limited decline; MT range.

Today, below 8565, a retracement is likely towards 8320 & 8260. Alternatively, above 8565, aim at 8650.


 
Dow Jones (Daily)


 

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